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Who's Down with GOP?

(Yeah, you know me.)

"All presidential terms that coincided with negative average annual returns occurred under Republican leadership." (Nightlife Finance 26-Nov-2024 on US politics and the stock market).

Trump is ... (checks notes) ... uh oh.

That stocks have only gone negative under GOP presidents is less drastic than it sounds. To be fair, the podcast does add context and nuance to that raw fact.

It would be fairer to say that stocks have only gone backwards under three of the last sixteen presidents, who also happened to be Republican. Even then, only one (Hoover) oversaw a double-digit drawdown. The rest of the time, it's double-digit gains.

US stocks are not the only investable asset class.

George W. Bush (2001-2009) saw stocks fall but bond values rise. Biden presided over the opposite.

Looking abroad (source):

  • Australian Bonds and cash were positive during Nixon's term (1969-1974), unlike US stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 almost doubled.
  • W. may be associated with the Great Financial Crisis, but during his term only US and developed country shares suffered. 2008 did not erase earlier gains in Australian and Emerging markets like China.

Politics is not investing, is not global investments.

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Location: Washington, DC, USA

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