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The Math of Being Yourself

You miss 100% of the stupid decisions you don't make.


Negative self-talk goes like this:

I missed out on that opportunity because I'm too pushy/meek/vain/stupid/whatever.

Astronaut, doctor, parent. There's no end to what could have been, but for some personal flaw. 

The infinite number of missed opportunities far outweighs the finite number of wins attributable to your better characteristics.

Expressed mathematically:

|Missed opportunities (∞)| ⋙ |Achievements (𝐱)|

Looks pretty grim, right?

But that's not the whole story.

Those same traits also enabled you to avoid a lot of crappy situations. An infinite number, in fact.

That dark alley you didn't walk down (because you're unadventurous). That alluring but flawed stranger you didn't trust (because you're snobbish). That demeaning task you refused (because you're proud). Forget missing out on becoming The Right Honourable Admiral Lawyer M.D., there are countless times you avoided suicidal disillusionment or wearing toe-tags.

Your self-talk should also include:

I missed out on dying in a mother-flippin' ditch because I'm pushy/meek/vain/stupid/whatever.

We are taught to valorise positive action, but don't ignore the power of simply not doing a fail. Morgan Housel nails it thus:

In many fields, particularly investing, you can make more progress getting ahead by avoiding mistakes than you can making brilliant decisions.

The equation now looks like this:

|Missed opportunities (∞)| ≅ |Missed mishaps (∞)| + |Achievements (𝐱)|

Two points:

  1. It all balances out.
  2. For everybody.

No matter what your major malfunction is, it's led you to fumble infinite plays, but also dodge infinite bullets.

You want to change your wiring? Be a different person? Go ahead. No biggie. The result is going to be roughly the same: you'll just miss out on different infinities of good and bad.

No matter the number or magnitude of your achievements, your personal scoreboard - as if you could neatly categorise consequences into 'good' and 'bad' - will be an approximate balance between the sheer size of the sum of your opportunity costs and the many catastrophes that you avoided. Don't get me wrong, the wins attributable to your efforts do tip the balance in your favour, just not by very much.

Focus less on the outcomes of your characteristics, and more on whether you actually want to keep them. 

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Location: Koganei, Tokyo, Japan

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