The Time Value of Time

The value of time is not constant, nor linear. Imminent time is exponentially more valuable than distant time. This 'Discounted time flow' is easy to gloss over, hard to quantify, but radical.

Time discounts money. $1 a year from now is worth less than $1 today. This is not necessarily inflation, or a conspiracy to devalue your savings. To make up for the risk of not receiving it, and the opportunities you forego, I would need to offer more than $1 in return for your $1 today.

Time is similarly a resource, so proximity should similarly affect its value. If we expect compound growth rates for future money, we can expect the value of time to decay drastically the further it is into the future relative to now.

Discounted time flow has behavioural implications.

We should aim to do or avoid doing something only if it saves us a significantly greater amount of future time. That 'stitch in time' should save nine, or else it's not worth making.

This is radical in that it supports procrastination. If an assignment will require constant resources it makes far more sense to leave it until the last minute. The danger is not that time is wasted, but that time required is misjudged.

We should also defer enjoyment only if doing so will significantly increase it. Children who choose a chocolate now over two later are smart, not short-sighted. A bird in the hand is not worth two in the bush, but three (maybe four).

Conversely, suffering should be brought forward only if it will significantly decrease future pain, similarly to how making extra repayments on your mortgage makes more sense in times of higher interest rates.

This is radical in that it supports moderate short-termism, deferring discomfort, and opposes delaying gratification.

Discounted time flow has explanatory implications.

Assuming we have a natural instinct for discounted time flow, this explains why people choose video games over seeking work. It makes no sense to delay the constant gratification of a good game, whereas looking for jobs carries uncertain enough reward that we need only do so if in imminent peril (say, of starvation).

This explains why the Abrahamic religions stress giving immediate time to doing the good deeds which improve your divine standing.

"I hasten and do not delay to keep your commandments" (Psalm 119:60)
"Do not say to your neighbour, "Go, and come again, tomorrow I will give it" - when you have it with you." (Proverbs 3:28)
"Lose no time to do good deeds before you are caught up by one of seven calamities awaiting you: a starvation which may impair your wisdom; a prosperity which may mislead you; an ailment which may damage your health; an old age which may harm your senses; a sudden death; the Dajjal (Antichrist); or Doomsday, which is indeed the hardest and most bitter." (at-Tirmidhi, al-Baihaqi)

Moreover, the discounted time flow concept explains why we should carpe diem (seize the day): because the diem we carpe is not only worth more than the diem passed, it is far more valuable than the diem to come.

Does Discounted time flow clash with forward thinking?

The fable that comes to mind is of the grasshopper and the ants. One argument is that the grasshopper should be lauded for seizing the day and enjoying itself. However, the grasshopper should have foreseen that some work would actually create a significantly greater amount of time and enjoyment in the future. That is, an alternative to suffering premature death by starvation.

Being future-focused can be reconciled with short-termism by considering discounted time flow a tool to prioritise immediately available opportunities for action (or inaction), given likely outcomes provided by foresight. 

One analogy is that of driving a car: your mind is on your destination, but your eyes are on the road.

The biggest take-homes for me:

• It is not good strategy to always delay gratification or always bring forward discomfort.
• Worrying about the future is more wasteful than I'd thought. I should rather spend that time planning, re-framing (finding other perspectives), or just enjoying myself.

Further Reference

The time value of time would relate to survivorship, as expressed in life tables. Rather than exponential decay, it may also follow a sigmoid, e.g.: