dtcwee: The Value of Nothing

Can game theory explain 2024's year of elections? Political losers sneer at voters who seemingly ousted well-meaning if hapless incumbents to empower villains who actively campaigned to lower their living standards. via GIPHY "Face-eating leopards prepare for a record year." However, people may not vote in their future interests, but to further a strategy that is equally rational.

What if it's actually the houses? I spent the last six months in Australia without a car, looking to do some travel, home repairs, and a little blogging about life without a car. That's all come to an end.

Westerners hearing of Japan's declining population often comment, "Gee, that must be nice." Let's just stop immigration for a bit, they say, until infrastructure, housing, and services catch up. If immigration is inseperable from progress, so be it. If Japan's being stuck in the year 2000 since 1980 hasn't been disastrous, then stopping time in 2025 should provide ample comfort. As much as that sentiment comes from a place of contentment with the way things are (if not discontent with the way they are heading), it misses something important.

Cheap labour may no longer come to you.  Rich western nations may be souring on immigration . Longer term, the global supply of working-age people will shrink . Services inflation outstrips goods inflation , particularly in areas which are hard to automate.

Arnhem Land, Australia, 1650: expat Makassans run trepang processing plants with their local joint venture partners. Even after white settlement, during Australia's supposedly 'pure' settler period, you had Chinese on the gold fields and in veggie gardens, and blackbirded Islanders on sugar plantations. Even the most remote societies have always been multicultural, to varying degrees. Tribes since the dawn of humanity have bumped and mingled. Nudge nudge, wink wink. Steppe people, no! The notion that multiculturalism erodes social cohesion is therefore false. So what actually does?

As if you needed another measure to tell you Australian house prices are out of whack. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio tells you how much people are willing to pay for an asset compared to how much it earns. Currently, the P/E for the world's 100 largest companies is 26.68 . A suburban Adelaide home worth $1.2M bringing in $750 a week rent and costing $12,000 per year (council rates, insurance, maintenance) has a P/E of 44 . [1.2M / ((750*52)-12,000)] via GIPHY